Week 17 DFS Focus – Quarterback

Hard to believe that week 17 is here already. Like every week, we will kick of the positional focus pieces by looking at some quarterback plays. However, keep in mind the advice I outlined last week, and be leery of the guys with nothing left to play for. Below, I will highlight the guys whose playoff hopes are still alive and well. It is worth noting, that these will not necessarily be value plays, just the guys I like the most.

Ben Roethlisberger – $6,900

Pittsburgh needs some help to get into the playoffs in the form of a NYJ lose. Regardless, they need to do their part and win on the road in Cleveland. Big Ben had a pedestrian performance last week, much to the chagrin of fantasy owners. A lowly Baltimore team completed the season sweep of the Steelers, surprising almost everyone, as the Steelers were being touted as the team that no one wanted to face come playoff time. I just can’t picture Roethlisberger being held in check again this week. The last time he faced the Browns back on week 10, Big Ben was 22/33 for 379 yards with 3 td’s and 1 INT, good for almost 31 fantasy points. I see Roethlisberger and the Steelers returning to form and looking like the squad that had fans of other teams worried. I think that Pittsburgh’s motivation to get into the playoffs will be greater than the motivation the Browns have to play spoiler. Hitting his season average of 21.7 fantasy points will give owners over 3x the return on Big Ben this week. I like him to hit just around 4x his value on Sunday.

Ryan Fitzpatrick – $5,400

Here’s the New York Jets playoff scenario; win and their in. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league lately. Over his last four starts, he is averaging 312 yards and 2 td’s. There’s not many other guys I would want leading my team into a must win game this week. Did I mention that he only has 1 interception over his last 4 games as well? Last week he faced a stout Patriots defense and threw for 296 yards and 3 td’s, and finished with 24 fantasy points. He rewarded owners with a return greater than 4.5 times his value. This week his salary was only bumped up by $200, and at only $400 above the minimum, how can you not love starting him? I plan on building a lot of rosters around the red hot Fitzpatrick this week.

Brian Hoyer -$5,100

Reports are indicating that Hoyer will clear the concussion protocol and be back on the practice field Wednesday. The Texans also need a win to clinch their division, and have the good fortune of facing the Jaguars at home. A Jaguars team that ranks 29th against the QB and allows 269 yards on average through the air. Priced at only $100 above the minimum, Hoyer should provide owners with a great return on his value this week. He comes into this matchup averaging 16.6 fantasy points per week on the season. Just reaching that average would be good for 3.2 times his value. Keep an eye on the injury report to make sure that he will be good to go on Sunday. If he is, insert him in your lineup, sit back and watch him pay dividends on Sunday as the Texans look to clinch the AFC South.

-DFS Pete

Week 17 DFS Focus – Quarterback

Malcolm Gladwell went in on Roger Goodell and the NFL Today

Malcolm Gladwell went in on Roger Goodell and the NFL Today

Week 16 DFS Focus – Running Back

David Johnson – $5,800

Christmas came a little bit early this year when Draft Kings decided to keep David Johnson at this price point. He had an absolute monster of a day last week, putting up 47.9 fantasy points, good for nearly 8.5 times his value. Arizona comes into this week ranked number 1 in yards per game, 422.9, and 2nd only behind Carolina in points scored with 445. Here we have Johnson as the feature back in this offense at under 6k. His ownership will probably be through the roof at this price, butĀ I can’t justify not starting him. The Packers are allowing 116 rush yards per game, and are ranked 22nd in rush defense by Draft Kings. Johnson is almost a lock to return 4x his value this week.

Cameron Artis-Payne – $4,300

Artis-Payne filled in for Jonathan Stewart last week after Stewart got banged up. At this point in the season, Carolina will not trot out an injured Stewart, leaving Artis-Payne as the starter. Last week, Artis-Payne got 14 carries off the bench and averaged 4.2 yards per. This week, the explosive Carolina offense takes on a Falcons squad who ranks 29th against the running back. Cameron should get plenty of work on Sunday, but in the interest of full disclosure, I am always worried about Tolbert stealing TD’s. At this price though, I think he is a solid play and worth a start. 15 fantasy points will give owners a return of 3.5x his value.

Denard Robinson – $5,400

Robinson is officially listed as probable and teammate TJ Yeldon is still wearing a knee brace. I therefore expect that Robinson will once again get the start this week vs a poor New Orleans defense. Draft Kings has the Saints ranked 32nd against the running back position and Football Outsiders ranks them 29th in DVOA against the run. Based upon matchup alone, I will be starting Robinson. Last week Robinson provided owners with a return of 3.3 times his value, and I expect him to finish in a similar range this week, which would put him at 17.8 points.

-DFS Pete

 

Week 16 DFS Focus – Running Back

Week 16 DFS Focus – Quarterback

We’re on to week 16, and we back to value plays at QB. Keep in mind that with the playoff push in full force, be leery of those QB’s playing on teams who are already out with nothing left to play for. For the purpose of this article, I will focus on those guys whose playoff hopes are still alive and well.

Teddy Bridgewater – $5,200

Bridgewater has a great matchup this week at home vs the Giants. Considering how terribleĀ the Giants secondary has been all season, I’m inclined to start any QB going up against them at this point. When Teddy comes in priced at only $5,200, I have no choice but to jump on that. Over his last two starts, Bridgewater has averaged 26.3 fantasy points and one of those games was on the road in Arizona. The Giants are fresh off a game where they allowed Newton to throw for 5 TD’s, and Bridgewater is also coming off a 5 TD performance last week. He threw for 4 and ran for 1. He completed 85% of his passes to boot. With AP being held in check as of late, I just cannot envision a scenario where Bridgewater doesn’t shred the Giants secondary. At this price, Bridgewater will only need to put up 20.8 points to reach 4x his value. However, I believe that he stays hot and comes closer to his more recent average of 26.3 this week. At only $200 above the minimum QB salary, if you’re looking for value, then Bridgewater is a must this week. It should also be noted that Minnesota needs a win (or a Seahawks win or Falcons lose in full disclosure) to get into the playoffs.

Kirk Cousins – $5,500

Washington travels to Philadelphia this Saturday night, and at 7-7, the Skins control their own destiny. A win vs the Eagles will clinch the NFC East for Washington with a week to play, and will inevitably have Cousins asking, “you like that?” The Eagles come into this matchup ranked 30th against the QB. They are also allowing 259 yards per game through the air – which ranks them at 24th in that category. Over his last two starts, Cousins has averaged 32 fantasy points per game. He has also rushed for a touchdown in 3 of his last 4 starts, adding great value for fantasy owners. With both teams still vying for a playoff spot, expect this to be a great back and forth matchup. Vegas has a total of 48, with the Eagles laying the traditional home team 3 points in this contest. So it is shaping up to be a close, high scoring affair. Cousins has averaged 19.6 fantasy points on the season. If he reaches his average this week, he will provide a return of 3.5x his value.

-DFS Pete

 

Week 16 DFS Focus – Quarterback